M ay 2 00 8 On the elicitation of continuous , symmetric , unimodal distributions

نویسنده

  • John Paul Gosling
چکیده

In this brief note, we highlight some difficulties that can arise when fitting a continuous, symmetric, unimodal distribution to a set of expert’s judgements. A simple analysis shows it is possible to fit a Cauchy distribution to an expert’s beliefs when their beliefs actually follow a normal distribution. This example stresses the need for careful distribution fitting and for feedback to the expert about what the fitted distribution implies about their beliefs.

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تاریخ انتشار 2008